Some reflections at half time
As I come to the end of my 6
month tour of this incredible country it is time to reflect on my time here as
I pass the baton onto my successor – Ian Woodbridge - here in the Public Affairs Office in Kabul. I am redeploying back to the ARRC in
Gloucestershire although the ARRC will remain contributing to the ISAF Joint
Command until January 2012.
My first observation – as ever in
Afghanistan – is that it is almost impossible to make snapshot judgements. Things have to be seen over time. And so while I certainly cant say job done –
far from it - I do genuinely believe that things are progressing and there is real
hope and belief that the country is moving in the right direction. It is certainly naïve to think that there
aren’t still huge problems and issues to be rationalised and some that probably
never will be – nonetheless there has been much progress that needs to be
acknowledged especially as we approach the tenth
anniversary of the conflict.
The most notable thing to have
happened in the last 6 months was to witness the whole transition process get
under way in seven of the provinces and municipalities. The insurgents have
clearly seen this as a threat and have tried recently to disrupt these events and
have targeted a number of those areas – mainly against defenceless individuals
and innocent civilians that have grabbed the headlines. However, the notable thing has been the way
in which the Afghan security forces have been able to respond to these attacks;
not always completely on their own – but certainly in the lead – and importantly
the Afghan people are becoming increasingly confident in their security forces.
It is clear that the process of
transition is now really under way and that the Afghans quite rightly want to
take ownership of the process. The coalition and the wider international
community will always be there to help and support them in this process. We now look forward to the Afghan
Government’s announcement of the second phase of the process and increasing
number of Afghans that will be protected by Afghan security forces.
One other thing I noticed
during this tour – which perhaps was not so apparent on previous ones, is the
sense of hope and belief that the Afghan people now have in their own country – there is a real commitment coming through
that simply wasn’t there 5 years ago. There is a sense of ownership – that the
Afghans really want to take charge and determine their future – there is a
vision for that future – and while it may not be everything we might think it
should be it will be their future and they are determined to drive it now. This is most evident in the youth who are fast
becoming the majority. In Afghanistan, an
estimated 42% of the population is aged 15 or under: 27% are aged 15-29. By
contrast, only 17% of the population is over 40 years of age. It is these young
people that will be the key to the successful future transition of
Afghanistan, and it is impressive to see the amount of investment that is
happening in this area. More than 5.4 million children are now enrolled
in schools today, nearly 35% of them girls, compared to a little more than a
million 5 years ago and almost no girls (more
here).
Much of our work at the ISAF
Joint Command has been in developing the capability of the armed forces for the
transition – there is now over 300,000 Afghans in the armed forces – a
testament to their own commitment to their future. They are also making huge sacrifices. They are
prepared to step up to the plate – and while many of these brave soldiers and
policemen are paying the ultimate price – there are more behind them willing to
immediately take their place – a testament to their commitment. This is not only true in the rank and file but
in local government and government officials. We have seen the insurgent turn
their attention to attacking easier – or softer targets now – as they realise they are less and less
capable of taking on the security forces head on – but for every official that
is killed there is another willing to take their place. Afghans really do
understand what it is going to take and they are prepared to pay that price to
determine their country’s future.
Afghan forces are developing
fast. While they are not yet able to
conduct counter insurgency operations across the country completely
independently – they are increasingly taking the lead. This has been seen in the high profile
incidents in Kandahar, Herat and Kabul as well as on the increasing number of
pro-active operations to capture insurgents.
They are now planning operations independently and in some units they
are leading those operations. It is this understanding of their development
that has led to the transition plan that remains on track for the handover of
security responsibility at the end of 2014. We should not expect this to be an
automatic hand off – but a gradual process.
So there are grounds for optimism
– but we must still be cautious – the insurgents are still active and there is
so much left to do – and by no means is it all military. It is a massive
commitment, and not without risk, but one that we must all continue to support
– particularly as there is now a real momentum to return Afghans to some sense
of normality. There will be setbacks and
the path will be difficult but the Afghans are up for it and we must continue
to be there to support them. The Afghan
surge really is underway.
My good-byes are done, many
friends left behind and many already departed; hugs and handshakes exchanged it
is time to go home and be reunited with my long-suffering family who continually
support me during these deployments. While
my 6 months has been a long time I feel for the many others that will be doing
a full year, and the thousands of troops in the 130,000 coalition that are
fighting on the front line in Forward Operating Bases in Helmand or Kandahar or
Kunar and all the other locations across the country - who have it so much
harder. And finally, my thanks to all
those I have been privileged to know and work with during the last six months
and I look forward to the opportunity of working with you again in the future.
I will be remaining at the ARRC in Gloucester until taking up my new appointment in the New Year.
Mark Wenham